Matt McCall on Ray Kurzweil’s Accelerating Investment Returns and Black Swans

December 10, 2007
Filed Under Chicago, Entrepreneurship, Venture Capital |

Matt McCall writes about his talk last Thursday at Ignite Chicago on the issues of Black Swan and on Ray Kurzweil’s theme of accelerating returns. The Powerpoint of Matt McCall’s speech is here.

Quick points:
– a Black Swan is 1) a rare event, 2) with high impact, 3) that is hard to predict (pattern attributed post event)* examples include 9/11, stock market crashes, discoveries like Penicillin, start-ups (eBay, etc)
– most of mankind’s development has been driven by black swans (unstructured randomness) — black swans key in driving big entrepreneurial successes (payoff inverse to predictability)

Speaking of Ray Kurzweil, a few months ago he was in Chicago for Transvision 07, I had a chance to sit down for a chat with Ray at that time (scroll to the bottom for the podcast), but I’ve had some problems with my Wordpress audio software that I fixed over the weekend. My apologies to both Ray and his many fans for the delay.

Ray Kurweil talks about some of the following:

hedge funds

reading device for the blind

dietary supplements

his newsletter and web site

by the late 2020’s artificial intelligence eventually matching the ability human brains

becoming non-biological

seeing the intersection of artificial intelligence and biology

the ability to track history and information to create predictive models and time device introductions properly

exponential growth

his passion for ideas

developing his own treatment solution for type II diabetes