{"id":677,"date":"2007-12-10T17:15:00","date_gmt":"2007-12-10T21:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/2007\/12\/10\/matt-mccall-on-ray-kurzweils-accelerating-investment-returns-and-black-swans\/"},"modified":"2009-07-28T23:28:17","modified_gmt":"2009-07-29T04:28:17","slug":"matt-mccall-on-ray-kurzweils-accelerating-investment-returns-and-black-swans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/2007\/12\/10\/matt-mccall-on-ray-kurzweils-accelerating-investment-returns-and-black-swans\/","title":{"rendered":"Matt McCall on Ray Kurzweil&#8217;s Accelerating Investment Returns and Black Swans"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.vcconfidential.com\/2007\/12\/black-swan-or-u.html\">Matt McCall writes<\/a> about his talk last Thursday at Ignite Chicago on the issues of Black Swan and on Ray Kurzweil&#8217;s theme of accelerating returns. The Powerpoint of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vcconfidential.com\/files\/2007_12ignite_blackswan.ppt\">Matt McCall&#8217;s speech is here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Quick points:<br \/>\n&#8212; a Black Swan is 1) a rare event, 2) with high impact, 3)  that is hard to predict (pattern attributed post event)* examples  include 9\/11, stock market crashes, discoveries like Penicillin, start-ups  (eBay, etc)<br \/>\n&#8212; most of mankind&#8217;s development has been driven by black swans  (unstructured randomness)                 &#8212; black swans key in driving big entrepreneurial  successes (payoff inverse to predictability)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Speaking of Ray Kurzweil,  a few months ago he was in Chicago for Transvision 07, I had a chance to sit down for a chat with Ray at that time (scroll to the bottom for the podcast), but I&#8217;ve had some problems with my WordPress audio software that I fixed over the weekend. My apologies to both Ray and his many fans for the delay.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/wp-content\/uploads\/2007\/12\/daviddalka.com_Ray_Kurweil_2007.mp3\">Listen to the interview: daviddalka.com_Ray_Kurweil_2007<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ray Kurweil talks about some of the following:<\/p>\n<p>hedge funds<\/p>\n<p>reading device for the blind<\/p>\n<p>dietary supplements<\/p>\n<p>his newsletter and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kurzweilai.net\/index.html?flash=1\">web site<\/a><\/p>\n<p>by the late 2020&#8217;s artificial intelligence eventually matching the ability human brains<\/p>\n<p>becoming non-biological<\/p>\n<p>seeing the intersection of artificial intelligence and biology<\/p>\n<p>the ability to track history and information to create predictive models and time device introductions properly<\/p>\n<p>exponential growth<\/p>\n<p>his passion for ideas<\/p>\n<p>developing his own treatment solution for type II diabetes<\/p>\n<p>health and biology has not become information technology<\/p>\n<p>pocket computing technology to help the blind with OCR readers<\/p>\n<p>Second Life&#8217;s potential and indication of things to come and his breakfast with Philip Rosedale<\/p>\n<p>Second Life&#8217;s potential to be as real as real life<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Matt McCall writes about his talk last Thursday at Ignite Chicago on the issues of Black Swan and on Ray Kurzweil&#8217;s theme of accelerating returns. The Powerpoint of Matt McCall&#8217;s speech is here. Quick points: &#8212; a Black Swan is 1) a rare event, 2) with high impact, 3) that is hard to predict (pattern [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,16,32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chicago","category-entrepreneurship","category-venture-capital"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.daviddalka.com\/createvalue\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}